Like I suggested in my diary, the smart money is on the likelihood of catastrophe, but the winners will only be able to collect if the money is worth anything, and if the losers are still alive.  

And one more thing --

A true realist has examined the options before her, and made a choice based on likelyhood vs. magnitude of benefit, before putting a plan into place.

See Hardin's "Tragedy of the Commons" for the outcome of a society full of realist go-getters.  Also see my diary on Hardin...