Tom Udall will be live-blogging today at Democracy for New Mexico at 4:30PM mountain time.  Come share your comments, questions, and concerns with Congressman Udall, who will be on hand for a half hour to speak with you.

Click here to head over to Democracy for New Mexico now.

And let us know in the comments here what you thought of the live blog when it's over.

If Rasmussen's latest poll is accurate, Republican candidate Steve Pearce has experienced a significant polling bounce thanks to a series of negative ads from his campaign and the Club for Growth.

Rasmussen. 8/20. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (7/24 results)

With leaners included, it's 53-44 for Udall, down from an astonishing 61-35 margin last month.

Now, this poll could well be an outlier. Pearce has been advertising statewide of late, hitting Udall on energy, and the Club for Growth has given him a timely assist. Still, it's almost impossible to see how a 26-point edge with leaners could be trimmed to a 9-point lead in less than a month.

Still, this race was bound to tighten up eventually, and perhaps we are seeing the first indications of this phenomenon. This race should still be considered "Likely Democratic" until further polling confirms this result, of course.

This result does speak to the one real ace in the hole that GOP candidates have: they've got a few powerful, well-financed independent organizations like the Club for Growth and Freedom's Watch that have the money to do the dirty work the GOP can't afford to do.

There are some items up on News Unfiltered that may interest the community.

DNC calls on the FEC for a new investigation into McCain's campaign finance violations:

With the Federal Election Commission scheduled to address John McCain's decision to unilaterally withdraw from the federal matching funds program on Thursday, the Democratic National Committee today called on the Commission to remove that item from its agenda and instead proceed with a full investigation of the charges made against McCain in the administrative complaint filed by the DNC in February. In a conference call with reporters this morning, DNC General Counsel Joe Sandler discussed a letter he sent to the FEC last night that argued that the Commission should not consider McCain's decision to withdraw from the matching funds program because there is no request for permission pending and the Commission hasn't yet conducted an investigation as required by the law.

Read more.

As always, click on all pictures for the larger version.  And you can see the rest at my Flickr page

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

Saturday, I followed Tom Udall around the city, starting up in the Northeast Heights at Page One, the largest independent bookstore in the state.

Page One Town Hall

The event at Page One was a town hall meeting, where about 100 people showed up to hear Udall give a short speech and ask the Congressman questions.

Udall began the speech by telling about his accomplishments both as the Attorney General and as a Congressman.  He mentioned he voted against the war in Iraq and said, "We should have stayed in Afghanistan; we should have captured Osama bin Laden."

They sure have to do a lot of clarifying in the McCain campaign, don't they?

McCain set off a firestorm last week when he suggested that the 86 year old agreement that allocates the scarce resource of the Colorado River among the seven states of the Colorado Basin "obviously needs to be renegotiated" because of "new realities of high growth, of greater demands on a scarcer resource," he didn't mean it should, you know, be renegotiated, really, to make sure that the high growth states of California, Nevada, and Arizona got more of that scarce resource. But that's sure how it sounded to the people of Colorado.

So here comes the McCain campaign with what he "really" meant:

Tom Kise, the McCain campaign's Colorado spokesman, said McCain was not proposing that the 2007 agreement be reopened or any immediate talks on the compact.

"He's talking about ongoing conversations, conversations that happen this year, next year, 10, 20, 30 years down the road," Kise said.

Kise said McCain knows global warming is changing water conditions in the West, and that means the states need to talk. "As long as water is going to be an issue in the West, there should be an open conversation among all parties," Kise said.

Ah, so the states need to talk, that's all he was saying. Only problem is: they have been.

Considering he's a Senator from one of those seven states in the compact, you think he'd have somewhat of a better grasp of the actual policy making on the issue in his state. See, the seven states' governors came together last year to address current changing water conditions. In fact, they came up with an agreement:

The agreement was signed April 23 in Las Vegas by representatives of the Colorado River basin states of Colorado, Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The agreement proposes reducing deliveries of Colorado River water to Arizona and Nevada when storage in Lake Mead drops below certain set levels, thus reducing the risk of shortages in Colorado. The agreement would reduce the risk of shortages in the lower Colorado River by coordinating Hoover and Glen Canyon dam operations. The agreement also proposes a system for storing in Lake Mead water saved through conservation efforts or the development of new water sources.

In addition to resolving current Colorado River disputes, the agreement reduces the likelihood of future litigation among the seven Colorado River basin states by encouraging cooperation and consultation between the states. "Litigation pitting state against state over the Colorado River would cost taxpayers millions, and the likely result would not please anyone," said Colorado Attorney General John Suthers. "Thanks to the hard work of the parties involved, we can now work with - not against - other states to resolve our water disputes."

Into the middle of all this stumbles McCain, ignoring--or completely ignorant of--the fact that the seven governors (including California's, Nevada's, and Arizona's) decided that those states needed to work on how to find some of their own water, ignoring the fact that this was a complex and difficult set of negotiations.

Between this and his long support of using Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste dump, McCain's shown that he's pretty much completely out of touch with what is going on in the West. He's just not much of a westerner anymore.

To fulfill the "must talk about VP talk," Obama said he "Loves Richardson" in an interview with a local TV station.

Oh, and more pics at my Flickr set on the event.

I left my house at 10:00 am just to see Barack Obama at Rio Grande High School, a 45 minute drive from my house down in the heavily Hispanic South Valley.  I got back to my house at about 4:00 after battling traffic and my need for a stuffed sopapilla from Stufy’s (try the #8s if you ever go to Stufy’s).  Was it worth it?  Yeah.

Obama showed up at Rio Grande High School Monday for a town hall meeting, with hundreds of supporters cheering him on.  Included were some Democratic big-hitters, including Gov. Bill Richardson and Senate candidate Tom Udall.

Before Obama arrived, some New Mexico Democratic candidates and elected officials received attention from the gathering crowd in the sweltering gymnasium.  

So Hillary came to the area yesterday.  Obama campaign locals were encouraging people to go.  And I was curious to check it out, too.  See what the crowd was like.  An hour ahead of the doors opening, this was what I found:

This was about the same time that people had been asked to show up to volunteer.  But they had all the volunteers they needed by then.  Española is the county seat of Rio Arriba County, a heavily Democratic, largely Hispanic county which went for Hillary on Super Tuesday.  It is said that people in Rio Arriba wouldn’t vote for Obama unless Hillary came in person to ask them to.  And so she did.  

It was a dutiful performance, with a ritual feeling to it.  The laconic mood was perhaps related to a hot day, and a non-air-conditioned venue.

Just finished watching the stream of Obama's New Mexico women's meeting on CNN.  Kinda hard to tell how many were in attendance but it couldnt have been more than 30 people, all female. We all know about the ridiculous stories in the MSM of women unsure, put-off, or just down right angry at Obama.  None of this came through in the town hall.

All disasters are different. Some are sudden catastrophes: a bridge collapse, an earthquake, or the capsizing of a ferryboat. One moment everything is fine, the next, disaster. Other disasters seem to occur in slow motion: the Titanic scaping along the iceberg, the slow leak that fatally undermines a dam, or the gradual destruction of an environment through pollution.

John McCain suffered three slow motion disasters this past week, events that didn't look that bad as they happened, but in retrospect will hurt or even wreck his campaign for the presidency.

Follow me over the jump.

This diary is entirely inspired by a conversation my sister overheard this morning at one of the Obama campaign sites here in Albuquerque.  She was there picking up tickets for Obama's town hall that will be held here Monday.

Don't get me wrong.  I have the utmost respect for campaign volunteers and paid campaign workers. It is a hard, and sometimes, thankless job.   I especially respect those that have left their families, friends and lives behind to travel to a new state to work.

My words are not meant to chastise but rather to inform.  This is the most important election of our lives.  Please listen.

On Thursday, Rasmussen reported a 2 point lead for McCain over Obama in Colorado, 47-45.

If they repolled today, chances are very good that slim gain would be gone. Because there's one thing you do not mess with in Colorado, and that's water.

In an interview yesterday with the Pueblo Chieftan, McCain committed what could amount political suicide in the state by saying that the 1922 water compact negotiated between seven western states should be renegotiated to give Arizona, Nevada, and California (the Lower Basin states) more water. That's unlikely to make Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico (the Upper Basin states) any happier than it's made Colorado.

There's nothing more controversial in the West than water, and the single water issue that is most pressing is what happens as the Colorado drainage continues to experience drought and demand continues to grow. California's water rapaciousness was the issue in 1922 that brought the seven states' governors to negotiate the compact, and California's huge thirst is still the problem. But massive population growth in and around Las Vegas and Phoenix have the Lower Basin states--and the Republican nominee for president--eyeing a greater share of the Colorado.

Reaction in Colorado has been swift and incensed. Here's Ken Salazar:

"Senator McCain's position on opening up the Colorado River Compact is absolutely wrong and would only happen over my dead body," Salazar said. "It's an anathema to the fundamental principles of Colorado's water rights and our compacts."

The senator said that when the state's compacts with the lower basin states were negotiated, everyone knew at the time that those states would grow in population faster than Colorado. As a result, the upper basin states' water rights needed to be protected.

"We did not want California to gobble up all of the water supply on the Colorado River, and they would have done that under the doctrine of equitable apportionment," Salazar said. "In my view the compact is sacrosanct. I will fight tooth and nail to make sure that it is not opened up."

Even Republican Senate candidate Bob Schaffer had to attack his party's standard bearer on this one:

"Over my cold, dead, political carcass," Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bob Schaffer said.

"The compact is the only protection Colorado has from several more politically powerful downstream states," Schaffer added. "Opening it for renegotiation would be the equivalent of a lamb discussing with a pack of wolves what should be on the dinner menu."

The Denver Post was particularly snarky:

Memo to: John McCain.

From: Five million thirst-crazed Coloradans.

Subject: Forget about winning our nine electoral votes next November. We don't vote for water rustlers in this state; we tar and feather them! ...

As a senator, McCain has long represented a state, Arizona, that would love to steal Colorado's water. But now, he wants our votes. Apparently, nobody bothered to brief the candidate who Paris Hilton called "that wrinkly, white-haired guy" that stealing Colorado's water to benefit Arizona, California and Nevada isn't as popular an idea in Colorado as it is in Arizona, California and Nevada.

And ColoradoPols says McCain just lost Colorado.

There's nine electoral votes in Colorado (the state's unofficial motto: "Whiskey's for drinking, water's for fighting) that are a lot less likely to be swinging in November. It's probably safe to say New Mexico's five aren't going to be up for grabs now, either. It sure as hell isn't going to give McCain California, though it might shore up his chances in his home state. Maybe that's what this was all about after all, trying to make sure he doesn't lose Arizona. Because there isn't any other way to explain it.

Click on pictures to make larger.  And yes, these pictures all came out bad.  The lighting was between horrible and incredibly horrible.

As always, for more pictures, go to my Flickr page

I made the drive down I-25 that is both familiar and incredibly boring.  The drive from Albuquerque past Isleta, past Los Lunas even past Belen... to Socorro, New Mexico.  Somewhere along the trip (near Belen usually) I always ask myself why I'm doing this -- especially when I plan on turning around and driving back in just a few hours.

But I had a chance to see Tom Udall in action at a Town Hall-style meeting called the "Energy Security Roundtable."  And while Udall will never be confused with John F or Robert Kennedy for his oratorical skills (though few are), he still did pretty well in front of the crowd of about 40 in Workman 101 on the New Mexico Tech campus.

Harry Teague is a True Blue New Mexico candidate.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

Did we find Ed Tinsley's macaca moment?  To be honest, I would think that Tinsley was the least likely of the serious Republican candidates to come off and say something this incredibly stupid.  Steve Pearce talks off the cuff and doesn't care what others think; Darren White has a legendary temper.  And Dan East... well, I have very little idea about him at all -- and he has virtually no chance against Ben Ray Lujan.

But Tinsley, at the Association of Commerce and Industry (ACI) candidate forum this weekend, Tinsley said: "How can I call my two nephews over there right now...  and tell them I'm running against a guy that will cut your throat. That will cut the bottom out of your funding. That will..."

You can see the video below, fully in context.  See the crowd reaction.

My wife and I are in the process of moving to Albuquerque, NM and I have begun my phone calling for the Obama campaign, having made just 56 calls at this point.  Only about 5,000 more to go!

It is interesting being in two places at once, especially when they are so different.  On the one hand, we have a home on the west side of Albuquerque - a suburban Anywhere, America except for the sand and sagebrush - and on the other we have been living on the grounds of Dine' College, which is the tribal college run by
and for the Navajo Nation, 253 miles to the northwest, just over the Arizona line.

Greg Palast is promoting some plain old tinfoil hattery about rural NM.  I posted a (little noticed) diary yesterday.  It was a detailed analysis of one precinct in northern New Mexico.  There's persistent rumors of a big voter purge in NM, and Palast is one of the most high visibility proponents of that idea.  So I decided to look at the numbers.  And I don't see any problems in the precinct I looked at.  Someone linked to Greg Palast in the comments:

In swing state New Mexico, HALF of the Democrats of Mora, a dirt poor and overwhelmingly Hispanic county, found their registrations disappeared this year, courtesy of a Republican voting contractor.

This article isn't dated, but I find zero evidence of voters missing from the rolls in Mora County, New Mexico.  We've got plenty of problems in New Mexico, don't get me wrong.  But this just doesn't look like one of them.  Check it out.

I've got some good news, so check it out:

I've heard it said, and seen it written:  The voter rolls in New Mexico were purged, and it's gonna sabotage the election.  The implication is that something nefarious has happened.  I decided to test it out.  With a mini-audit on one precinct that I know well.  I worked it in 2004 in detail, and still have the files.

I went through Taos County, Precinct 13 (Taos Pueblo Indian Reservation) - comparing the voter rolls from Election Day 2004 with today.  My conclusion?  Nothing to worry about.  Unless something is very different in another part of the state, that is.  

Since there are persistent rumors and speculation on this, I thought it would be worth sharing what I found out.

Earlier today, I wondered how NM-02 Republican asshat Ed Tinsley could be independent if he's doing what he's told by the likes of Tom Cole.  What is one to think of a man who is running an active campaign, but can't make it to his party's convention because he wants to spend time with his family and go to the horse races?  It makes me wonder what thin excuses he'd need to stay home from Congress - if he can remember where he lives.  It makes me wonder if the #dontgo thing was really some kind of code for scaring people away from the convention.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

Click on photos for larger versions.  More available on my Flickr page, as always.

Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois was in the state and saw a good chunk of it in a short period of time -- at least up and down I-25.  

I'm not quite sure where he met up with Second Congressional District candidate Harry Teague for a fundraiser, but Emanuel stopped by Gabriel's Restaurant north of Santa Fe for a fundraiser and quick talk with the press (which is to mean myself and Steve Terrell of the Santa Fe New Mexican).  

Emanuel spoke about the big year Democrats had in 2006 and how we won; it wasn't just the war.