Years ago AU Political Scientist Allan Lichtman (Disclaimer: He ran for US Senate in MD as Democrat in 2006, but lost the primary to the eventual winner, Senator Ben Cardin) created The Keys to the Presidency. Based on complicated statistical research, Lichtman uses these keys to predict the winners of presidential elections. He claims that it has worked for every election since 1861.

(One key point: It predicts popular vote winners, not electoral college winners. So while it "worked" in 1876, 1888, and 2000, the electoral college said otherwise.)

More beneath the fold.

I know that this isn't a political diary per se, but I have been watching Wife Swap and SuperNanny tonight. I watch those shows because it is interesting to see how parents raise their children.

However, I blatantly just saw something on SuperNanny that bothers me. The nanny visits a family with three boys. The father and mother can't keep them under control. The three boys are adorable, but they are rambunctious. More beneath the fold.

This will be a relatively short diary, but I haven't seen it mentioned here today. The recent ad that John McCain has aired attacking Obama by linking him to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears is ridiculous.

But here is some information that the Obama should consider releasing in response. Although they have started running their own ad assailing McCain for his "negative ads", there are two key talking points that they haven't mentioned.

I will write about them below the fold.

And so, while everyone is talking about the polygamist sect in Texas, Virginia has its own sect. I was watching the late local news the other night and a story appeared about a sect in Virginia.

And this is frightening to think that he we are in 2008, and such abuse occurs. Listening to the women and their justifications for being in such marriages sickened me. More beneath the fold.

Last Sunday, as the Washington, DC area knows, the Washington Redskins suffered their worst loss in 40 years to the New England Patriots. After coming back to coach the team, trying to bring back franchise to the days when it won its Super Bowls, Coach Joe Gibbs has been unable to take the Redskins to the playoffs more than just once in the last few years. Over the better part of the last 15-17 years the Redskins have only had two playoff appearances in 1999, when they actually won the NFC East, and in 2005, when they won a wild card spot.

More beneath the fold

Well right now, on Meet the Conservative Press, they are having a discussion of the "General Betrayus" ad taken out by Moveon. And frankly, in a thread about this on Friday night, I said that they ran the wrong ads. I still believe that. I think that my reply, however, was important enough that it should be its own thread.

First of all the left still doesn't know effective PR. It doesn't know how to advertise effectively and use media. Even though the blogging universe has improved, the left still needs to use TV, talk radio, and print media better. More beneath the fold.

Read this Article from the Washington Post. So now we have the Washington Post effectively whoring for Bush again.

More beneath the fold:

Today there is an interesting Washington Post article focusing on the growth of minorities in the DC area and in the country at large. I didn't see any threads posted about this article, so I thought that I would share it with you. This link
includes a map of counties with minority-majorities.

This article does bear some interesting facts that Democrats should pay attention to. I continue my comments beneath the fold.

There was a show that just aired on ABC, and I'm kind of disgusted by it. It's called "The Fat March". The thesis behind this show is that fat people are to walk from Boston to DC. At the end of each episode they decide whether to "vote people off".

The rest of the weight loss reality shows focused on the positive. ABC's Shaq Challenge had a positive message. Those overweight kids were encouraged by positive reinforcement. But this show punishes fat people.